Trump’s First 11 Months: Successes, Patience, and the Reality of Policy Timing

  Trump’s First 11 Months: Successes, Patience, and the Reality of Policy Timing

Comparing to the Last Four Years

After four years of economic turbulence under Biden—falling real wages, stubborn inflation, and rising household costs—many Americans are impatient for immediate relief. But that’s not how policy works. It takes time for new legislation and executive actions to ripple through the economy. Eleven months into Trump’s return to office, the early signs are visible, but the full impact won’t be felt until the April filing season.

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Early Successes

• Gas & Oil Prices: National gas prices have dropped below $3 per gallon, and oil prices hover around $57 per barrel—relief compared to the higher averages of recent years.

• Trade Deficit: Down nearly 60%, signaling stronger export balance and reduced reliance on imports.

• GDP Growth: Running at 4.3%, a robust expansion that outpaces much of the post‑pandemic recovery.

• Food Prices: Staples like eggs are down, with Trump promising to expand supply chains to bring other food costs lower.

• Medication Costs: Deals with manufacturers are underway to reduce prescription drug prices.

• Housing: Trump has signaled that tackling the housing shortage will be a priority in the new year.

• Tariffs: Contrary to media claims, tariffs did not cause inflation. Instead, revenues from tariffs became an integral part of GDP and government funding, offering a chance to lessen the burden on tax payers.

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The Patience Factor

Many households want instant results. But tax changes, wage adjustments, and supply‑side expansions take months to show up in paychecks, refunds, and store shelves. By April, when filing season arrives, households should begin to see the improvement more clearly.

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The Caveat for Singles

It’s important to note the cruel reality: single tax filers remain disadvantaged. While the “big beautiful bill” removes taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security income—benefiting many lower‑ and middle‑income households—singles will still feel the shaft. Gas prices may be the most universal relief, but tax benefits are uneven.

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Inflation and Prices: Clearing the Confusion

Media and pundits often mislead people into thinking that “lower inflation” means prices return to what they were five years ago. That’s not true. Lowering inflation reduces the rate at which prices rise, not the absolute price level. Eggs may drop because supply increased, but most goods remain higher than years past. The only way to truly lower prices is to expand supply—more housing, more food production, more energy output.

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Looking Ahead

Trump himself has said there is more to do. Eleven months in, the groundwork is being laid: cheaper gas, lower trade deficit, stronger GDP, early steps on food and medication costs, and tariff revenues strengthening government finances. But patience is required. Policy is not instant—it’s cumulative. By spring, households will begin to feel the difference more tangibly.